Global Economic Prospects

The Global Outlook in Summary

	2012	2013	2014e	2015f	2016f	2017f
REAL GDP1
World	2.4	2.5	2.6	2.8	3.3	3.2
High income	1.4	1.4	1.8	2.0	2.4	2.2
United States	2.3	2.2	2.4	2.7	2.8	2.4
Euro Area	-0.7	-0.4	0.9	1.5	1.8	1.6
Japan	1.7	1.6	0.0	1.1	1.7	1.2
United Kingdom	0.7	1.7	2.8	2.6	2.6	2.2
Russia	3.4	1.3	0.6	-2.7	0.7	2.5
Developing countries	4.9	5.1	4.6	4.4	5.2	5.4
East Asia and Pacific	7.4	7.1	6.9	6.7	6.7	6.6
China	7.7	7.7	7.4	7.1	7.0	6.9
Indonesia	6.0	5.6	5.0	4.7	5.5	5.5
Thailand	7.3	2.8	0.9	3.5	4.0	4.0
Europe and Central Asia	1.9	3.7	2.4	1.8	3.4	3.6
Kazakhstan	5.0	6.0	4.3	1.7	2.9	4.1
Turkey	2.1	4.2	2.9	3.0	3.9	3.7
Romania	0.6	3.5	2.9	3.0	3.2	3.5
Latin America and the Caribbean	2.9	2.7	0.9	0.4	2.0	2.8
Brazil	1.8	2.7	0.1	-1.3	1.1	2.0
Mexico	4.0	1.4	2.1	2.6	3.2	3.5
Argentina	0.8	2.9	0.5	1.1	1.8	3.0
Middle East and North Africa	1.3	0.5	2.2	2.2	3.7	3.8
Egypt2	2.2	2.1	2.2	4.2	4.5	4.8
Iran	-6.6	-1.9	3.7	1.0	2.0	2.0
Algeria	3.3	2.8	4.1	2.6	3.9	4.0
South Asia	5.4	6.3	6.9	7.1	7.3	7.5
India2,3	5.1	6.9	7.3	7.5	7.9	8.0
Pakistan2,3	3.5	4.4	5.4	6.0	3.7	4.5
Bangladesh2	6.0	6.1	5.6	6.3	6.7	6.7
Sub-Saharan Africa	4.1	4.2	4.6	4.2	4.6	5.0
South Africa	2.5	1.9	1.5	2.0	2.1	2.4
Nigeria	4.3	5.4	6.2	4.5	5.0	5.5
Angola	8.4	6.8	4.4	4.5	3.9	5.1
MEMORANDUM ITEMS
World real GDP (2010 PPP weights)	3.1	3.3	3.4	3.4	3.9	4.0
OECD real GDP	1.2	1.3	1.7	2.1	2.4	2.1
Non-OECD real GDP	3.8	2.6	2.2	0.9	2.4	3.2
Developing country real GDP      excluding  BRICS	3.5	4.3	3.9	4.3	4.6	4.6
BRICS real GDP	5.4	5.4	5.0	4.7	5.5	5.6
Low-income countries	6.5	6.2	6.2	6.2	6.6	6.6
World trade volume4	3.1	3.3	3.6	4.4	4.9	4.9
Oil price5	1.0	-0.9	-7.7	-31.9	4.9	4.7
Non-oil commodity price index	-8.6	-7.2	-4.6	-11.0	1.2	1.3
Manufactures unit export value6	-1.2	-1.4	-0.2	-0.2	1.9	1.7
6-mo. US LIBOR nterest rate      (percent) 7	0.7	0.4	0.3	0.4	…	…
6-month Euro LIBOR interest rate      (percent) 7	0.8	0.3	0.3	0.1	…	…
International capital flows to developing countries (% of GDP)
Developing countries	5.0	5.9	5.4	5.1	5.0	4.8
East Asia and Pacific	4.6	6.4	5.7	5.1	4.9	4.6
Europe and Central Asia	8.0	7.5	5.0	5.0	5.8	6.5
Latin America and the Caribbean	5.4	5.9	5.9	5.4	5.5	5.2
Middle East and North Africa	1.9	2.5	2.1	2.2	2.1	2.2
South Asia	5.7	4.5	5.8	5.8	5.6	5.5
Sub-Saharan Africa	5.4	5.2	4.3	4.2	4.0	3.9

_{Source: World Bank.
Notes: PPP = purchasing power parity; e = estimate; f = forecast. World Bank forecasts are frequently updated based on new information and changing (global) circumstances. Consequently, projections presented here may differ from those contained in other Bank documents, even if basic assessments of countries’ prospects do not differ at any given moment in time.}

<sub>1. Aggregate growth rates calculated using constant 2010 U.S. dollars GDP weights.
2. In keeping with national practice, data for Bangladesh, Egypt, India, and Pakistan are reported on a fiscal year basis in table 1.1. Aggregates that depend on these countries are calculated using data compiled on a calendar year basis.
3. GDP data for Pakistan are based on market prices.
4. World trade volume for goods and non-factor services.
5. Simple average of Dubai, Brent, and West Texas Intermediate.
6. Unit value index of manufactured exports from major economies, expressed in U.S. dollars.
7. The 2015f rates are the average of daily interest rates up to latest available data.
8. Balance of payments data for net capital inflows of foreign direct investment, portfolio investment, and other investment (BPM6).</sub>

_//

_{http://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/global-economic-prospects/summary-table}

_{http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/policy/wesp/wesp_current/2016wesp_ch1_en.pdf}

US GDP Growth Forecast 2015-2019

In this dashboard, we integrate the most recent medium and long-term forecasts of key economic indicators for G20 countries from major international organizations, namely, the World Bank, IMF, United Nations, OECD, European Commission and the Economist Intelligence Unit. The data presented cover projections of real GDP growth, characterizing each country's output of final goods and services; consumer price inflation, as a measure of price level movements; unemployment rate, or percent of those willing and able to work but cannot find it; current account balance, providing an idea of a country's position in the international exchange; and, government debt, showing the relative value of government liabilities, which could affect a country's stability and confidence level. 

Analysis based on such cross-sectional data gives comprehensive picture of a country's performance in the "open-economy" conditions, which is becoming even more comprehensive with the usage of a diverse collection of information sources. Each provider of forecasts makes its projections based on different assumptions concerning fiscal and monetary policies of the countries under review, interest and exchange rates, oil and non-oil commodity prices and so on. 

Taking all these factors into consideration could well help to build on even more robust future projections.

//

http://knoema.com/qhswwkc/us-gdp-growth-forecast-2015-2019-and-up-to-2060-data-and-charts

Economic Models

In addition to their professional academic interest, the use of models include:

• Forecasting economic activity in a way in which conclusions are logically related to assumptions;

Forecasting economic activity with targeted predictors

Forecasting the US economy

Forecasting the World economy

Short-term forecasts

Long-term forecasts

Kiplinger's Economic Outlooks

GDP	2.3% growth for '16, down slightly from '15 More »
Unemployment	Falling to 4.6% by end '16, from 5% now More »
Interest rates	10-year T-notes at 2.4% by end '16 More »
Inflation	2.4% for '16, up from 0.7% in '15 More »
Business spending	4% gain in '16, after drop in '15 More »
Energy	Crude oil trading from $35 to $40/bbl. into May More »
Housing	Construction of single-family homes up 15% this year More »
Retail sales	3.9% growth in '16, from 4.6% in '15 (excluding gasoline sales) More »
Trade deficit	Widening 4% in '16, after a 6.2% increase in '15 More »

Gross Domestic Product

Gross domestic product is the broadest indicator of the economy, measuring the value of final goods and services produced in the U.S. in a given time period. It is perhaps the most closely watched indicator as well, serving as a guidepost for Federal Reserve interest rate policy and fir budgeting both government and private industry.

Read more at 

• Planning and allocation, in the case of centrally planned economies, and on a smaller scale in logistics and management of businesses.

• In finance predictive models have been used since the 1980s for trading (investment, and speculation),
• 
  
•  Since the 1990s many long-term risk management models have incorporated economic relationships between simulated variables in an attempt to detect high-exposure future scenarios (often through a Monte Carlo method).
• 
  

A model establishes an argumentative framework for applying logic and mathematics that can be independently discussed and tested and that can be applied in various instances. Policies and arguments that rely on economic models have a clear basis for soundness, namely the validity of the supporting model.

Economic models in current use do not pretend to be theories of everything economic; any such pretensions would immediately be thwarted by computational and feasibility and the incompleteness or lack of theories for various types of economic behavior. Therefore conclusions drawn from models will be approximate representations of economic facts. However, properly constructed models can remove extraneous information and isolate useful approximations of key relationships. In this way more can be understood about the relationships in question than by trying to understand the entire economic process.

The details of model construction vary with type of model and its application, but a generic process can be identified. Generally any modelling process has two steps: generating a model, then checking the model for accuracy (sometimes called diagnostics). The diagnostic step is important because a model is only useful to the extent that it accurately mirrors the relationships that it purports to describe. Creating and diagnosing a model is frequently an iterative process in which the model is modified (and hopefully improved) with each iteration of diagnosis and re specification. Once a satisfactory model is found, it should be double checked by applying it to a different data set.

http://www.kiplinger.com/tool/business/T019-S000-kiplinger-s-economic-outlooks/

Corporate Salary Wages Distribution Model Research

A controlled salary and wage distribution in a corporation should be awarded with tax IRS reward. This will limit run away high wages and very low ones.

Research how this can be accomplished?

What is the distribution model? A Gaussian or bell shape distribution or other distribution?

The distribution can be related to the type of industry or the service type or field?

Economy aggregate supply (AS) (SRAS) (LRAS) (MRAS)

There are generally three forms of aggregate supply (AS). They are:

• Short run aggregate supply (SRAS) — During the short-run, firms possess one fixed factor of production (usually capital). This does not however prevent outward shifts in the SRAS curve, which will result in increased output/real GDP at a given price. Therefore, a positive correlation between price level and output is shown by the SRAS curve.
• Long run aggregate supply (LRAS) — Over the long run, only capital, labour, and technology affect the LRAS in the macroeconomic model because at this point everything in the economy is assumed to be used optimally. In most situations, the LRAS is viewed as static because it shifts the slowest of the three. The LRAS is shown as perfectly vertical, reflecting economists' belief that changes in aggregate demand (AD) have an only temporary change on the economy's total output.
• Medium run aggregate supply (MRAS) — As an interim between SRAS and LRAS, the MRAS form slopes upward and reflects when capital as well as labor can change. More specifically, the Medium run aggregate supply is like this for three theoretical reasons, namely the Sticky-Wage Theory, the Sticky-Price Theory and the Misperception Theory. When graphing an aggregate supply and demand model, the MRAS is generally graphed after aggregate demand (AD), SRAS, and LRAS have been graphed, and then placed so that the equilibria occur at the same point. The MRAS curve is affected by capital, labor, technology, and wage rate.

In a standard aggregate supply demand model, the output (Y) is the x axis and price (P) is the y axis.

An increase in aggregate demand shifts the AD curve rightward, bringing the equilibrium point horizontally along the SRAS until it reaches the new AD. This point is the short run equilibrium.

Lean Finance _ Sustainable Growth Rate

Rasheed Kafir Nuts Wiered things in Qoran Koraan Koran

The squabble about the Arabic word " Robama" . This is related to people and addressing them and not God talking to himself and wondering "
:::""may be??

In the Qoranic verse it is suggestion for Muslim to ponder and not get despair that the disbelievers may in their heart has some inner desire to believe.

Outside comment they may have other problems not to openly to believe as their position in the society

أمور غريبة عن الله في القرآن سؤال جريء 

222

أمور غريبة عن الله في القرآن سؤال جريء

Dr Fatma